9E 5145 · MSP → FWA

departs 7:36 PM CT · arrives 10:13 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at FWA more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FWA?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ Other factors

↑ 7pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at FWA

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.90 in

FWA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5145 · MSP → FWA

Odds over time

How late will it get to FWA?