Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ENDEAVOR · FLIGHT 9E 5163 LANDED 6:22 PM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

9E 5163 · MSP → FAR

took off 5:38 PM CT · landed 6:22 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at FAR more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ 5pm departures from MSP are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ FAR usually runs smoothly

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.54 in

FAR (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

9E 5163 · MSP → FAR

Odds over time