Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1222 LANDED 11:15 PM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 1222 · PHX → MIA

took off 4:09 PM MT · landed 11:15 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 4pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

MIA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1222 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time