Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1591 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 1591 · PHX → CLT

departs 2:11 PM MT · arrives 8:50 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

CLT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1591 · PHX → CLT

Odds over time