Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1689 LANDED 8:26 PM AT, ~8 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1689 · MIA → SJU

took off 6:18 PM ET · landed 8:26 PM AT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

SJU (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,840 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1689 · MIA → SJU

Odds over time