Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1786 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1786 · DFW → DTW

departs 3:17 PM CT · arrives 6:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

27% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1786 · DFW → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?