Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1788 LANDED 4:14 PM CT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1788 · DCA → MSY

took off 2:57 PM ET · landed 4:14 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±0 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 3pm departures from DCA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1788 · DCA → MSY

Odds over time