Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 1874 LANDED 1:04 PM ET, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 1874 · CLT → BGR

took off 11:05 AM ET · landed 1:04 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at BGR more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, visibility down to 1 mi, 1.2 in of rain forecast at BGR that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↓ BGR usually runs smoothly

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

BGR (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.22 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 1874 · CLT → BGR

Odds over time