Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2139 LANDED 10:20 PM ET, ~14 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 2139 · DCA → MCO

took off 8:29 PM ET · landed 10:20 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 8pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2139 · DCA → MCO

Odds over time