Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2188 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AA 2188 · MIA → PHL

departs 10:04 PM ET · arrives 12:55 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±3 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from MIA are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2188 · MIA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?