Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2205 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2205 · PHX → MIA

departs 10:00 PM MT · arrives 5:22 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

MIA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2205 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?