Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2206 LANDED 11:26 PM ET, ~89 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2206 · DFW → MIA

took off 8:01 PM CT · landed 11:26 PM ET (scheduled 6:10 PM CT → 10:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2206 · DFW → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?