Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2286 IN THE AIR (OFF 5:13 PM CT, ETA 7:56 PM ET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 2286 · STL → DCA

took off 5:13 PM CT · expected to land 7:56 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DCA (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2286 · STL → DCA

Odds over time