Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2406 IN THE AIR (OFF 2:48 PM CT, ETA 4:39 PM CT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 2406 · DFW → MSP

took off 2:48 PM CT · expected to land 4:39 PM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MSP more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±2 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 2pm departures from DFW are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSP (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2406 · DFW → MSP

Odds over time