Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2476 LANDED 11:43 AM CT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2476 · CLT → PNS

took off 11:31 AM ET · landed 11:43 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at PNS more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ CLT is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PNS (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2476 · CLT → PNS

Odds over time