AA 2654 · PHX → MIA

took off 10:44 PM MT · landed 5:28 AM ET (scheduled 11:05 PM MT → 6:28 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±2 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ PHX usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

MIA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2654 · PHX → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?