AA 2774 · AUS → PHL

took off 7:36 AM CT · landed 11:54 AM ET (scheduled 7:30 AM CT → 12:05 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ PHL is busy at that time

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2774 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?