Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2774 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1

AA 2774 · AUS → PHL

departs 7:30 AM CT · arrives 12:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

10% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at AUS that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 16% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Thursdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.94 in

PHL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2774 · AUS → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?