AA 2828 · MIA → DFW

departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from MIA are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.17 in

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2828 · MIA → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?