AA 2851 · TUL → DFW

departs 4:58 PM CT · arrives 6:15 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2851 · TUL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?