tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2858 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Yesterday

AA 2858 · JAX → PHX

departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:21 AM MT
Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
18% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 15% 30% 45% 60% 2.8d 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to PHX?

  1. On time or early
    81%
  2. 15–30 min late
    8%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    4%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    4%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.