Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2878 LANDED 10:23 PM MT, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2878 · PHL → DEN

took off 8:57 PM ET · landed 10:23 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±2 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2878 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time