AA 2886 · SEA → PHL

took off 10:54 PM PT · expected to land 6:29 AM ET (scheduled 10:46 PM PT → 7:04 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHL?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2886 · SEA → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?