Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2978 LANDED 11:19 PM ET, ~4 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 2978 · DCA → PWM

took off 10:05 PM ET · landed 11:19 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 10pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility9.6 mi Precipnone

PWM (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.13 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2978 · DCA → PWM

Odds over time