Schedule: a typical summer Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3041 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 3041 · PHL → ATL

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3041 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?