Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3041 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Sunday, October 4

AA 3041 · PHL → ATL

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 65h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

50% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
10%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at PHL that day

↓ Sundays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ATL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1 mi Precip0.13 in

ATL (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility1 mi Precip1.35 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3041 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?