Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3041 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow

AA 3041 · PHL → ATL

departs 5:35 PM ET · arrives 7:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,333 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

ATL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.16 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3041 · PHL → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?