Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3154 LANDED 9:15 AM ET, ~25 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 3154 · RIC → CLT

took off 8:20 AM ET · landed 9:15 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ RIC is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility6.8 mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3154 · RIC → CLT

Odds over time