Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3158 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 3158 · PHL → DEN

departs 5:30 PM ET · arrives 7:45 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3158 · PHL → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?