Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3159 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 3159 · PHX → ABQ

departs 9:46 PM MT · arrives 11:59 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at ABQ more than 15 minutes late?

39% chance · ±3 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ABQ?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9pm departures from PHX are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ABQ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

ABQ (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.70 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3159 · PHX → ABQ

Odds over time

How late will it get to ABQ?