Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3306 LANDED 7:22 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29

AA 3306 · PHL → MIA

took off 5:11 PM ET · landed 7:22 PM ET (scheduled 4:25 PM ET → 7:27 PM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3306 · PHL → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?