Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 408 IN THE AIR (OFF 3:28 PM CT, ETA 4:39 PM MT) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 408 · MSP → PHX

took off 3:28 PM CT · expected to land 4:39 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

58% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.75 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MSP that day

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 3pm departures from MSP are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MSP usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MSP (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.75 mi Precip0.90 in

PHX (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip0.67 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 408 · MSP → PHX

Odds over time