Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 423 LANDED 7:28 PM ET, ~13 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 423 · CLT → PHL

took off 6:16 PM ET · landed 7:28 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

37% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 6pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 423 · CLT → PHL

Odds over time