Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 436 LANDED 2:28 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 436 · TPA → CLT

took off 1:13 PM ET · landed 2:28 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Other factors

↑ 1pm departures from TPA are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 436 · TPA → CLT

Odds over time