Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 512 LANDED 4:38 PM ET, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 512 · ORD → LGA

took off 1:55 PM CT · landed 4:38 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

48% chance · ±0 pts +9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 512 · ORD → LGA

Odds over time