AA 581 · MIA → ORD

took off 7:02 AM ET · landed 8:46 AM CT (scheduled 6:40 AM ET → 9:08 AM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Visibility down to 0.5 mi, 1.2 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MIA that day

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from MIA are usually not late

Weather at each end

MIA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip1.21 in

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 581 · MIA → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?