Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 623 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 623 · PHX → MCI

departs 7:32 PM MT · arrives 12:13 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCI more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCI?

On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.34 in

MCI (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip0.39 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 623 · PHX → MCI

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCI?