Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 627 IN THE AIR (OFF 10:52 PM ET, ETA 11:30 PM CT)

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 627 · CLT → ORD

took off 10:52 PM ET · expected to land 11:30 PM CT (scheduled 8:27 PM ET → 10:00 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ORD?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
97%
Over 2 hours late
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 8pm departures from CLT are often late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

Weather at each end

CLT (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 627 · CLT → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?