Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 902 LANDED 8:30 PM ET, ~11 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29

AA 902 · MCO → LGA

took off 6:21 PM ET · landed 8:30 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

54% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 902 · MCO → LGA

Odds over time