Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 9830 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AA 9830 · SDF → CLT

departs 11:02 PM ET · arrives 12:00 AM ET

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at CLT more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into CLT at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CLT

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SDF

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CLT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 9830 · SDF → CLT

Odds over time