Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 1153 · HNL → LIH

departs 6:50 PM HT · arrives 7:31 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ 6pm departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

LIH (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1153 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?