Schedule: a typical summer Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1153 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Thursday, October 1 Yesterday

AS 1153 · HNL → LIH

departs 6:50 PM HT · arrives 7:31 PM HT

Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

49% chance · ±0 pts +16 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
50%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
16%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 1.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 6pm departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.61 in

LIH (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.91 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1153 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?