Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1164 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 1164 · LIH → HNL

departs 8:03 PM HT · arrives 8:40 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±3 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at LIH that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ 8pm departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.19 in

HNL (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1164 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?