AS 1186 · HNL → OGG

took off 5:21 PM HT · landed 5:38 PM HT (scheduled 5:10 PM HT → 5:55 PM HT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to OGG?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at HNL

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OGG

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

OGG (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1186 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late did it get to OGG?