Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1406 LANDED 3:42 PM PT, ~10 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 1406 · LAX → SFO

took off 2:41 PM PT · landed 3:42 PM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 46% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1406 · LAX → SFO

Odds over time