Tracked live by the FAA. The scheduled times shown are from a typical Tuesday because the FAA's flight plan was first seen after takeoff.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1478 LANDED 6:40 PM CT, ~4 MIN LATE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 1478 · SAN → ORD

took off 1:19 PM PT · landed 6:40 PM CT (scheduled 12:40 PM PT → 6:57 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORD?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 12pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1478 · SAN → ORD

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORD?