Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1512 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 1512 · SEA → FAI

departs 11:27 PM PT · arrives 2:15 AM AKT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at FAI more than 15 minutes late?

32% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to FAI?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into FAI at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.04 in

FAI (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.10 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1512 · SEA → FAI

Odds over time

How late will it get to FAI?