Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1545 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Yesterday

AS 1545 · ORD → ANC

departs 12:59 AM CT · arrives 4:41 AM AKT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 20h after departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↑ 12am departures from ORD are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ORD that day

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1545 · ORD → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?