Schedule: a typical Tuesday (the flights of Jul 28, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1572 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, September 29 Today

AS 1572 · LAS → PAE

departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:38 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 9:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 1.25 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ Gusts to 27 kt forecast at LAS that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into PAE at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts27 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility7 mi Precip0.08 in

PAE (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility1.25 mi Precip0.30 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1572 · LAS → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?