Schedule: a typical Thursday (the flights of Jul 30, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 1572SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
AS 1572 · LAS → PAE
departs 7:00 AM PT · arrives 9:38 AM PT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
10%chance · ±1 pts−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE AREModerate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.